Jan 28, 2017

Trump's Trade Policy - Striking the Right Tenor

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 is widely regarded as the tipping point that sent the world into the Great Depression. Punitively high duty rates were applied to all import shipments into the USA. (If you are interested, the law was never repealed and the high duty rates remain in the US tariff book under Column 2, picture below). The world quickly retaliated and protectionists barriers caused markets to dry up, prices to skyrocket, and rewarded inefficient bloated domestic industries. The result was a worldwide economic disaster.

Snap Shot of the US Tariff and Duty Rates
The other end of the spectrum is a TPP style trade deal where national sovereignty, regulations, and duty collection are sacrificed on the altar of "free trade". Trump rightly called the Congress and the Obama administration on the carpet for this disastrously crafted agreement. (Note in the picture, Free Trade Agreements have duty rates listed under "Special" above).

With the election of DJT, the pendulum seems to be swinging back. The balance is usually somewhere in the middle. Decades of bad trade policy can not be undone quickly - to try and do so will be a disaster. Before we institute punitive tariffs, we have to rebuild our manufacturing base, we have to encourage companies to build factories in the US, and we need to make sure we have a workforce ready to take on the jobs.

It is interesting to note that modern factories are mobile, especially compared to the abandoned relics of the 20th century. Factories can be relocated in today's world. After the 9/11 attacks, I had a unique job of driving around NC/SC to visit and tour manufacturing facilities, Plant managers were so kind and took pride in escorting me through the premises to explain their processes.

What became very apparent to me was the modernity and leanness of the manufacturing process. Drive around industrial parks in this nation, you won't see belching smokestacks and railroad tracks behind hulking red brick manufacturing plants, you will see non-descript buildings, quietly producing all manner of products.

Modern Manufacturing Facility - Lincolnton NC
So consider, if you are an American company that has relocated light manufacturing in Mexico, it is not that difficult to move back to the US. An improved business environment, repatriation of money, and the threat of increased US Tariffs is EXACTLY the correct environment needed to swing that pendulum firmly in the middle, where it belongs.
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Jan 27, 2017

The Reality of NAFTA - A Customs Broker's Perspective

Given the recent headlines on US and Mexico Trade Negotiations, a practical approach is needed to cut through the rhetoric.  Allow me to present a brief analysis of the issue from a day to day operations perspective.

I have a degree in Economics, have worked in Intl business for 27 years, and am a Licensed Customs Broker. I have been an advocate for free trade all my life.  Thus having established my bonafides, I will comment on the threat of increased import tariffs for Mexican products and hope to inject real world practical examples into economic and political theory.

In a vacuum, which all economic theory functions, increased US tariffs prop up inefficient and unprofitable US industries, and inflate prices for US consumers. When US exports are charged a high tariff, our US goods are more expensive and we sell fewer items. In this scenario, high tariffs hurt everyone.

This is the economic model in which ALL trade agreements start and why they have been so popular since the 1940's. It is in general why conservatives and moderates are "Free Traders". This was the thought behind the bi-partisan support of NAFTA.

Life Before NAFTA

What the general public does not know is that prior to NAFTA, the US had a free trade agreement with Mexico that went "One Way". Their goods came into the US largely duty-free. Our goods exporting to them had an average import tariff of 25%.

NAFTA was supposed to bring down Mexican tariffs and eliminate "pre-shipment inspections".  The US already had a zero tariff for their goods and no pre-shipment inspections were required.

When NAFTA was signed, Mexico had a number of years to implement the reduction in US tariff rates. What the trade agreement did not address was Mexico's VAT tax on all imports

Nor did NAFTA address "Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade"

Non-Tariff Barriers are more incidious than tariffs, they are designed to frustrate, block, and hamper trade while escaping the attention of clueless trade negotiators.  Here are some examples:

Licenses:  The Mexican government requires that Mexican importers obtain import licenses for a vast number of products.  The license is an application to Economics Secretary and is generally valid for 9 months.  A permit has to be reapplied for repeatedly, it does not automatically renew, and requires a new full application and proof that the previous permit was used.  Each branch of the Mexican government can require their own departmental permit, for example, medicine has to have an import permit AND Health permit.

Permits:  Some products don't require a license but need a permit which is a governmental written approval process to import products.  This can be lengthy and arbitrary.  Mexico can effectively not take action on applications which the prohibits large classes of merchandise.

Restrictions on Ports of Entry:  Permits are also limited to specific ports of entry.  Thus, if an importer has an import permit in Mexico City, he effectively can't import through Laredo.  This means, for all practical reasons, the only way this client can import from the US is via Air Freight, which is much more expensive that truck freight.

Approved Importers:  There is a cartel type industry in Mexico where small importers and exporters can "use license and permits" of "approved importers".  So in our example above, the Mexican Importer with a permit in Mexico City can engage an "Approved Importer in Laredo" for a truck shipment.  The rates these outfits charge are so outrageous that most just give up and try to find other markets to sell their products.  They prey on the hapless exporter and importer who import a single AA battery without a permit, their $50,000 shipment is held up over a battery.  Thousands of dollars in storage, delays, and penalties ensue.  (I speak from experience...)

Prepayment of Duty and Taxes:  Mexico also requires that all duty and taxes be paid at the time of border crossing and clearance.  This slows down the process and can make for an arbitrary environment where corrupt officials decide the duty due.  If the parties do not agree on tariff number or valuation, the Mexican Customs official refuses the entry, the cargo is turned away to sit with storage.  The delay fees that often outweigh the payoff.

Mexican Customs Brokers can not be forwarders or trucking companies.  There are always two or more parties involved in the clearance into Mexico. This doubles the handling costs, causes inefficiencies, creates delays, and removes the streamline that complicated supply chains need to function.

What Mexico accomplished with "Non-Tariff Barriers" is they effectively made it impossible for the small and medium US exporter and the small and medium MX importer to do business together. The imports from Mexico flow in like a fire hose while exports into Mexico flow in through a stingy coffee stirrer with a hole in it.

Importing into Mexico is expensive, complicated, difficult, and utterly corrupt - by design. 

What's the real cost:  While Mexico reduced their tariff from 25%, they still subject US goods to about 10% duty + 16% VAT + Other fees and tax.  Mexico then levies an estimated 28% tax on US goods.  By contrast, the USA levies an average 1% duty plus a 0.365% processing fee.  Thus, a 20% tax on Mexican imports is still lower than the effective rate they charge us!

Contrast the USA:

The import environment of the USA is free from almost all of the restrictions I described above.  We have a beautiful free market.  Our companies and individuals are not required to obtain restrictive and costly import permits.  We are free to import just about any legal product into the US, in any port of entry that we chose. Of course, there are regulations and laws, but these are pretty simple and applied across the country by rule of law.  Importers have ten days to pay their duty and this is fixed by law so there is no specific agent making his share!

An importer in the US can expect to pay about $200 in fees and taxes on a small shipment from Mexico and have clearance and delivery within 48 hours.  The same transaction in Mexico cost $1500 and takes about a week, assuming all documents are in place.

Mexico has never lived up to the spirit of the North American FREE trade agreement

The weak, ineffective, globalist US Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama never uttered a word. All the while in the US, they raised minimum wage laws and put such a regulatory burden on manufacturers that producing in Mexico became very attractive. Consider the hostile business environment the USA has become: Unions, EPA, OSHA, Obamacare, high corporate taxes, high payroll taxes, and regulatory compliance that often requires a team of extremely high paid employees to manage, you have a perfect storm. The large multinationals have flourished - they benefited from cheap labor and lax regulations in Mexico while the famous Ross Perot "large sucking sound" was heard across the nation.

Pillowtex Worker Learns the Company is Closing
So, US workers HAVE lost jobs due to NAFTA, not because free trade is bad, but because NAFTA did not accomplish free trade between our nations. It was a parasitic deal that has been perpetuated on the US workers by passive US leadership, cunning Mexican politicians, and multinationals.

Dec 31, 2016

30 Day Jesus Challenge - The Decision

It's New Year's Eve - a time when people take stock of their lives and decide to make changes moving forward.  Today, I challenge you to make the most important resolution you will ever make.  Come to Jesus.

God loves you.

Such a simple statement but it changes the world.  He loves you.  He wants you to accept His love, He wants you in His family.

Invisible Attributes of God - No Excuses
He will not force Himself upon you, He is a gentleman, not a stalker.  He does not capture you and hold you prisoner and force you to accept Him.  Because He loves you - He wants you to come of your own free will.

Simply, believe in your heart that Jesus Christ is the Son of God who died to save you from your sins, pray it out loud, and ask Him to come into your life.

That's it.  There is no ritual, no church service you have to go to, no special ceremony.  Just believe, confess, and ask.

At the Foot of the Cross
Brothers, my heart's desire and prayer to God for you is that you may be saved. (Romans 10:1)  Faith comes through hearing and hearing by the Word of God. (Romans 10:17).

So today, do not harden your hearts it might be your last chance.

Pray - I confess with my mouth and believe in my heart that Jesus Christ is the Messiah, the Son of God and that he lived a perfect life.  He sacrificed Himself for my sin and on the third day rose from the dead.  I am a sinner that needs a Savior, please cleanse me of my sins and fill me with your Holy Spirit that I might be called a child of the Father.  In Jesus name, Amen.

Dec 30, 2016

30 Day Jesus Challenge - Day 30 Messiah

Jesus, the Jewish Messiah fulfilled over 300 prophecies in the Jewish Scriptures.  The odds of just one person fulfilling 8 of the major ones have been likened to covering the entire state of Texas in silver dollars three feet thick, marking one coin in red, and dropping a blind man in the midst, while allowing him to select only the marked coin with one try (read more here).

Jesus was a Jew
Yeshua belongs to the Jews first (Romans 1:16) and then to the gentiles,  Jesus said, "I was sent only to the lost sheep of the house of Israel." (Matthew 15:24).   It is estimated that at the time of Jerusalem's destruction in 70 AD that upwards of 70% of the population believed in Yeshua.

With the temple destroyed and the people expelled, Rabbinic Judaism was born.  It bears little resemblance to the faith of Moses and Aaron.  The Rabbis were more interested in retaining their power than accepting the truth:

John 11:47-50 So the chief priests and the Pharisees gathered the council and said, “What are we to do? For this man performs many signs. If we let him go on like this, everyone will believe in him, and the Romans will come and take away both our place and our nation.” But one of them, Caiaphas, who was high priest that year, said to them, “You know nothing at all. Nor do you understand that it is better for you that one man should die for the people, not that the whole nation should perish.”

After the Resurrection, they paid off the guards who had witnessed the event to claim that the disciples had stolen the body, "And having taken the money, they did as they were instructed. And this report is spread abroad among the Jews until the present day." Matthew 28:15

We see this Anti-Christ spirit among the Rabbis today as they organize counter evangelism campaigns against the large number of Messianic Jews.  Alas, the Spirit of the Lord is pouring out among the chosen people.  I Met Messiah are video testimonies by Jewish believers.  These Jewish believers encounter intense hatred and opposition from the Rabbis, but while the Rabbis might have bluster and arrogance on their side, the Messianic believers have truth.

The Forbidden Chapter is one of the most powerful pieces you will ever watch.

Pray - Lord, I believe you are the Messiah.  I believe that you died for my sins and that through your sacrifice I can be reconciled to Yahweh and saved.  Thank you for being the perfect lamb, please fill me with your peace.

Dec 29, 2016

30 Day Jesus Challenge - Day 29 Judgement

God knows how the story goes - for all the universe but even for your individual life.  He knows every word you have ever spoken, every thought you've ever had, every dream you've ever dreamed, the number of cells in your body.  He is the beginning and the end, your life when viewed under the microscope will have not secrets - things you have forgotten will be revealed.  Without the covering of Jesus blood, you will be utterly exposed and judged.

The Great White Throne Judgement
"And I saw the dead, great and small, standing before the throne, and books were opened. Then another book was opened, which is the book of life. And the dead were judged by what was written in the books, according to what they had done." Revelation 20:12

This is the Great White Throne Judgement and all who have died without Christ are judged a final time before being thrown into the eternal Lake of Fire.  There will be no innocent people there, everyone will have made their choice.  You are making that choice right now, you have been making that choice through the whole 30 Day Jesus Challenge.  If you choose yourself instead of Jesus, YOU send YOURSELF to Hell.  When the tapes of your life are played across the screen for all to see, this Challenge will be before your eyes, every time someone witnessed to you, every radio program that you skipped by, every time the Lord reached out to you and you rejected Him will be reviewed, there will be no excuse and no escape.

Pray - Jesus, I recognize that I am a sinner who can not make myself clean, I accept your sacrifice on the cross.  Please come into my life, save me, cleanse me of my sins, and give me eternal life with you Lord.